17/09/2026 04:17 AST
Trade tensions between the world's two largest economies are set to dominate next week's summit, when US President Donald Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House.
A fragile truce reached last October halted the rapidly escalating tariff war that Trump started, but a comprehensive, permanent deal has remained out of reach.
Here is where things stand ahead of the summit, which is expected on Sept 24:
How high are tariffs now?
Tariffs have been a major obstacle in US-China trade relations since 2018, during Trump's first term.
In April 2025, the base US tariff on Chinese goods reached 145 percent, and China retaliated with tariffs of 125 percent. Both sides have since cut their rates significantly. Tariffs are now imposed through a complex patchwork of sector-specific measures on both sides.
According to research group the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the effective US tariff rate on imports from China, which averages the duties paid across all goods, was 22.8 percent as of July. That is the highest of any major US trading partner. Among the highest effective rates on Chinese goods is 40.5 percent on steel and aluminum, it said.
China still imposes a 10 percent tariff on all US goods, with extra duties in certain sectors, such as 15 percent on liquefied natural gas.
How much trade is still flowing?
Trade between the two countries has continued despite the tariff turmoil. Chinese customs data shows total trade reached $400.8 billion from January to August this year, up 5.4 percent from the same period of 2025.
But the balance is lopsided, with Chinese exports making up 75 percent of the total. China's soaring trade surplus has long irritated Washington, and a similar imbalance is also straining its relations with the European Union.
What is on the table?
Trump told reporters on Sunday that he would discuss "almost everything" with Xi.
But tariffs are "the main issue on the agenda," Dan Wang, a director on Eurasia Group's China team, told AFP. "Xi wouldn't go if there were no deliverables on tariffs or a trade truce," she said.
Last week, China's commerce ministry said the two sides were discussing a framework to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of products each. The goal was agreed when Xi and Trump last met in Beijing in May. At that meeting, they also agreed to set up trade and investment councils to manage disputes.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that he would meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this weekend for talks expected to prepare the ground for the summit.
What leverage does China have?
Last year, Beijing successfully pushed Washington to back down from its steep tariffs by imposing tight controls on exports of rare earths. These critical minerals are used in many high-tech products, and China dominates their processing.
"China still has the upper hand" going into next week's talks, Wang said. She noted that China's supply chains are "very flexible" and that tariffs have not significantly slowed its record export boom so far.
Xi's diplomatic weight has also been on show recently. This month he has met several leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and traveled to Bishkek, Cairo and New Delhi.
What does Trump want?
Global oil prices have jumped after renewed fighting in the US war with Iran. With crucial midterm elections due in November, the Trump administration wants to ease concerns about the economy.
Getting China to commit to buying US farm goods, particularly soybeans, has been a recurring US goal in trade talks.
The meeting will also let Trump present himself as a statesman at a high-stakes summit at the White House. It will be Xi's first visit to Washington in 11 years.
What else could go wrong?
Several other difficult issues could derail a broad agreement.
China's economic and diplomatic support for Iran is a major point of contention. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Chinese entities supplied Iran with satellite images of a military base in Jordan that hosts US troops.
Fierce competition in technology also continues, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI). Last week, the US government accused Chinese AI labs of stealing the capabilities of US companies on an "industrial scale."
AFP
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