US Bonds Tumble as Oil Price Surge Rekindles Inflation Fears

06/03/2026 06:17 AST

A steep selloff ?in US Treasuries extended into a fourth straight day on Thursday, as investors fretted that surging energy prices from the war in the Middle East could stoke inflation and derail the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped as much as 5 basis points in Asia to a three-week high of 4.1310%, extending its rise for the week thus far to nearly 17 bps.

The two-year yield was meanwhile up about 2 bps to ?3.5640%, having ?also gained more than 18 bps ?this ?week. Bond prices move ?inversely to yields, said Reuters.

Investors have pared back expectations of further easing from the Fed this year on the back of the US-Israel war with Iran, which entered its sixth day as Iran launched a wave of missiles at Israel, sending millions of residents into bomb shelters.

That has ?kept oil prices elevated, and with shipping ?through the key Strait of ?Hormuz paralyzed, investor focus has quickly shifted to the risk ?of a resurgence in inflation.

"As of right now, ?the (US) consumer price index is going to get back to the high (2%) if crude oil costs don't tumble in short order," said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

"The reversal in (inflation) ?progress would likely send Treasuries and stocks further lower, as rate-cut optimism amid decelerating cost ?pressures was ?what sparked the rallies in fixed income and cyclical benchmarks early in 2026."

Traders are now pricing in just a 34% chance of a Fed cut in June, as compared to a near 46% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Fed funds futures point to just over 40 bps worth of easing by the year-end.

The shifting Fed expectations have also come on the back of Wednesday's upbeat US economic data, which showed services sector activity surged to more than a 3-1/2-year high in February amid strong demand.

Asharq Al Awsat