IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

15/04/2026 01:42 AST

The world may be already drifting towards the International Monetary Fund's "adverse scenario" forecast of weaker 2.5% global growth in 2026 even as it released ?on Tuesday ?a more benign ?reference ?forecast of 3.1% growth, ?IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Gourinchas told a news conference that the reference forecast assumes that the conflict is ?resolved quickly and that energy ?prices ?normalize in the second ?half of 2026, but acknowledged ?that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. He said the reference forecast ?was "not quite yet" irrelevant.

"I would say that we ?are ?somewhere in between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said.

"And of course, every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are drifting closer towards the adverse scenario."


Asharq Al Awsat

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